david nicholson's

Windows on WESTmount WEB
Wednesday #795 pre Election

S. (Sam) Totah

Montreal, Qc. Canada

Email: next@cam.org

www.vir.com/bulmer/bulmer.html

"Democracy means government by discussion, but it is only effective if you can stop people talking."Clement Atlee

Montreal, May 29, 1997

Wednesday night No. 795

Dear David & Diana:

Last night along with some thirty of your distinguished guests I attended once again "Wednesday Night" chez les Nicholson. Last night was - different. Different in the sense that we are approaching June 2, 1997 which is Election Day in Canada and less than 1000 days thereafter we are on the threshold of another millenium. In the light of these two events I felt the evening was distinct and very successful indeed!

To describe the evening from every angle possible is like a fly that has found its way in a nudist camp and wants to taste almost anything and everything on sight. The number one rule of your soirees is that they are indescribable—one has to be present to feel the mood, to get into the mood of discussion. One takes part or abstains (or for that matter the permanent mc (Mr. D.) decides "le droit a la parole!" The professors speak their minds, the politicians object, agreement comes from disagreements and finally one common sense (usually Mrs. D. N.) takes over and says "well –how about the common man, the man/woman who is not a professor, not a politician, not an economist… –how about the unemployed graduate student?" How about US, the individuals who want to get on with our lives but feel led by others and have very little say on how things evolve. Voila –that was the essence of the evening. In fact one of your guests –a man who has lived through the turmoil of Yugoslavia –tried to summarize the discussion in the simple but eloquent words "I just don’t understand!", he said, "the changes that Canada is contemplating and is living through while nations abroad envy your country (and Quebec too and more so the beautiful city of Montreal) for its present standard of living, its social harmony, the potential economic infrastructure it has in place and much more." "Do countries learn from the mistake of others?", your guest asked. There was no reply!

Last night guests were numerous. Some live in Westmount, others in Montreal,still othrs in the suburbs, but all in the Province of Quebec, in the country still called Canada and we are part of this immense North American enclave. We were often reminded that we are only 30 million in Canada next to our giant but nevertheless good friend the United States of some 300 million people.The main topic of discussion was the politics of the province of Quebec – the province that seeks special status or has already the special status by the mix of its population and especially the French language and culture that prevails here. No one in the audience denied that fact. We all recognize it, applaud it and partctpate actively in it. The concensus of the gathering is that most of us would be content to go on with our lives, make a living, have good contacts with our neighbors and extend this friendship as far away as Newfoundland and British Columbia. Social harmony and economic well being are our prime objectives. These feelings are frequently expressed on Wednesday Nights where, as David enjoys pointing out, some 20 plus languages and cultural heritages are represented.

Now –back to the politics of the Nation. Various topics were raised and discussed around the table –and I will enumerate here a few of them—

  • Quebec politics and the Bloc Quebecois agenda of succession. Quo vadis Quebec ?
  • The Federal Liberal Party agenda and its promise of "jobs, jobs, jobs" –while the unemployed or under-employed in Canada still number approx. 1.5 (one and a half) million human beings. These are not just statistics but humans.
  • The local and national politicians who go for "power" and neglect the real need of their constituents. A constant presence is missing. A need to be in contact with the local population needs and aspirations is not filled. Politicians are not present to address problems and find real practical solutions. All these factors were mentioned.
  • The new liberalism does not work! This subject is beyond Economics 101 –thus I pass.
  • Economies of scale vs. diseconomies of scale in reference to the alarming new trend of amalgamation of the cities and their suburban neighborhoods. Amalgamation also raises the spectre of lack of representation at yet another level of government - see above.
  • Distinct society and "us" distinct individuals –as the MC has expressed it.

On the economic front and investment outlook, here is what experts in the field had to say:

  • Inflation is no longer "the" problem or a problem!
  • The big problem is the employment index that does or does not reflect the true picture of the employed, the unemployed or under-employed. And of course a new generation of "unemployable"or "unadjustable". New terms and terminology of who is who on the "making a living" chart and his/her chances for a better life are yet to come.
  • The dichotomy: the job openings in specific sectors in Canada vs. the unfulfilled expectations! Who is right: the entrepreneur or the unemployed!
  • Employment vs. structural unemployment. Considerable difference in the provincial economies.
  • There will be an upward adjustment to the interest rates –soon.
  • The rich and poor gap—still staring at us!
  • Recession—Yes, one could talk the economy into recession!
  • Economic values change or rather the "age factor" makes us look again at the values we espoused some 10-20 yr. ago. We now subscribe to a new set of values thus a new set of economic objectives. The result of which affects the present economic structure of the nation and of course our expectations of what governments should and should not do in the course of their mandate.
  • Does money talk? And if it talks –does it also travel? Ideas on investments going as far away as Brazil because of its 200 million inhabitants (where the rich/poor gap is enormous) or the USA –with its political stability and excellent infrastructure were all mentioned. The North/South economic axis is more relevant than the old mantra "go west, young man" – perhaps from fear that one meets a member of the Reform Party.
  • Does marginal tax rate (Canada vs. US) play any role in the investment decision of the potential investor? Contradictory opinions abound on this subject and your guests reflected those views…

All these points elicited some heated discussion with no practical solution on what the next step should be to make the future brighter for the generation of young people graduating from universities and still on the "jobless" scene. Many of your guests have one or more close family members seeking employment elsewhere on the North American continent or overseas. Yet, Canada remains in the dire of our Prime Minister "the best country in the world". This paradox came once more to light during the discussions.

Now this isn't a poll, much less a scientific survey - just the observations of journalists and the Wednesday Night Pundits who, for the most part, have spent a good part of their lives watching the political homo quebecensis in action.

Now here is what some prominent attendees had to say about the election results:

PARTY

GUEST "A"

GUEST "B"

GUEST "C"

GUEST "X"

GUEST "Y"

GUEST "Z"

Jun 3

LIBERALS

148

173

173

130

152

157

155 39%

PC

52

20

48

45

40

12

20 12%

REFORM

43

50

45

50

45

52

60 20%

BLOC QUE.

21

41

20

30

19

46

44 17%

NDP

17

17

15

15

19

12

20 11%

Note: the numbers might not add up –due to some unknown factor! & one Ind.




From

Reporters make their election predictions

by Ed Bantey, Special

Of 75 Quebec seat now Bloc 54; Liberals, 19, Conservatives, 1; independent, 1.

- My crystal ball tells me the Bloc will win 49 Quebec seats, the Liberals, 22 and Tories, four.

- Maurice Girard, bureau chief of Canadian Press here, gives Gilles Duceppe's troops 52 seats, the Liberals at least 20 and Jean Charest's Tories possibly three.

- Rhéal Séguin of the Globe and Mail predicts the Bloc will win 46 seats, the Liberals, 25 and the Conservatives, four.

- La Presse's Mario Fontaine figures the Bloc will elect 45 MPs, the Liberals, 27 and the Conservatives, three.

- CBC's Bernard St. Laurent says the BQ will take 44 to 46 seats, the Liberals, 25 and the Tories four or six.

- The Toronto Star's Robert McKenzie pegs the Bloc at 44, gives the Liberals, 30, and thinks Charest will take one seat, his own in Sherbrooke.

- Elizabeth Thompson: Bloc, 40; Liberals, 25, Tories, 10.

- Normand Girard, dean of the National Assembly press gallery who reports for the Journal de Montréal, predicts the Bloc will win 38 to 40 seats, the Liberals 30 to 35 and the Tories a maximum of five.

- Ed Bantey is a freelance journalist.

In fact some politicians hold the same opinion whether they are from one party or the opposing party! Their views are the same –only their hats change.

I introduced my guest for the evening: Dr. Paul Saba, a graduate of McGill Medical School and Emergency Medicine practitioner at the Montreal General Hospital. Dr. Saba has volunteered in Bangladesh, Somalia, Haiti and Lebanon. He was medical director of a Canadian Public Health Association project, "CAUSE" and is currently President of the Coalition des Medecins pour la justice sociale.

Dr. Saba commented on the new drug insurance plan of the Quebec government and its impact on the elderly and psychiatriacally disabled persons. He also elaborated on the impact of these measures on the health of these patients and the direct or indirect impact on the increase in health costs. Dr. Saba has distributed a petition to physicians stating the need to oppose any policy that discriminates and harms those most vulnerable in our society.

The petition states:

"We….ask the Assemblee Nationale (Quebec) that the government return to the former drug plan of having a charge of $2.00 per prescription (max. $100.- annual) for the elderly and free medication for the mentally handicapped people who are on welfare."

Comments from your guests were in sympathy with the humanitarian gesture that Dr. Saba has initiated, but doubt was expressed that there is any hope that a back-track on instituted policies by the present government will ever be undertaken.

In closing, my comments on the evening – I like to quote from David’s invitation letter to the Wednesday night:

"The final week of the Federal Election Campaign and we still are not discussing issues, only personalities and percentages....Join us and our good friend Jacques Clément to discuss the state of the economy, the environment, employment, proportional representation,investment in education and the internet, R & D ...Maybe Wednesday Night can lay out a platform for Canada/Quebec."

Of course as usual David tried hard to squeeze in all the above

Amongst this mishmash of ideas, sentiments, feelings, realities, statistics, predictions,…one thing is for sure: we all learned something new and we met new people. The sip of wine made it all look too easy to swallow even on the eve of a unique election in Canada –where Canadians after some 200 years are still in search of a home to call "home sweet home". Your home David & Diana has indeed offered your guests exactly that plus the words "welcome & bienvenu".

Thank you for the nice evening spent in your company along with your other guests, lawyers, professors, business people, bankers, doctors,politicians, Westmounters, Montrealers, Quebec –ers, Canadians, and people born all over the world –speaking some 20 and more languages and all in need of a home to call one "Canada".

After I wrote this letter I took a walk on the mountain –a unique site near Beaver Lake and I dreamed of inviting the leaders of the political parties to the same site to ask them one question "WHY?".

Sincerely,

Sam Totah

Bulmer@vir.com

http://www.vir.com/bulmer/bulmer.html 

 

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Westmount Que H3Y 3G6
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